Have you noticed how the diamond industry seems to be at a crossroads in late 2025?
On one side, natural diamonds are reclaiming their sparkle as lab-grown alternatives fade, yet looming trade barriers threaten to dim the sector’s glow.
The global Diamond Market is projected to grow, hitting USD 144.94 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.2% between 2025 and 2030. As a market research firm specializing in luxury goods, we sift through these shifts to reveal opportunities and risks. Backed by fresh reports, this exploration highlights how production trends, consumer preferences, and geopolitical tensions are redefining a sector that processes over 80% of the world’s rough diamonds in India alone.
Let’s unpack what’s really happening—and why it matters for your portfolio or business strategy.
Why are Natural Diamonds Experiencing a Revival in the 2025 Market?
Imagine diamonds that once competed fiercely with synthetic rivals now shining brighter than ever. In 2025, the pendulum has swung back toward natural stones, driven by a dramatic price collapse in lab-grown diamonds (LGDs). Prices for one-carat and two-carat LGDs have plummeted up to 96% since 2018, now trading at a 90% discount compared to equivalent natural diamonds—a stark contrast to the mere 10% cheaper valuation in 2015.
This reversal stems from oversupply woes – Global synthetic diamond production hit 17.1 billion carats in 2024, fueled by ramped-up output in China and India.
Yet, demand has eroded as consumers, particularly in the bridal segment, favor the authenticity of natural gems. World Diamond Council President Feriel Zerouki notes, “Lab-grown diamond prices are crashing. This is impacting consumer confidence in lab-growns”. Analyst Paul Zimnisky echoes this, highlighting how LGDs are sliding toward “fashion accessory” status, no longer viable for high-end markets.
Meanwhile, natural diamond production, which dipped slightly to an expected 125 million carats in 2025 from 129 million in 2024, benefits from renewed marketing efforts like De Beers’ Luanda Accord—allocating 1% of African diamond sales revenue to promote natural stones collectively. In India, the domestic natural diamond market has grown up to 20% annually since 2022, on track to reach $4 billion by 2030.
From our research lens, this resurgence signals a premiumization trend: Natural diamonds’ scarcity narrative is restoring margins, potentially lifting key markets like the US and Europe.
In summary, the natural diamond revival in 2025 marks a market correction:
- Price Disparity: 90% LGD discount erodes synthetic appeal, boosting natural demand.
- Production Balance: Natural output stabilization at 125 million carats supports supply chain confidence.
- Marketing Momentum: Initiatives like the Luanda Accord enhance consumer perception.
This shift isn’t temporary—it’s repositioning natural diamonds as the enduring choice.
How are Looming US Tariffs Disrupting India’s Role in the 2025 Diamond Market?
What happens when a powerhouse like Surat—the global hub polishing over 80% of rough diamonds—goes eerily quiet? In 2025, the Surat Diamond Bourse, a sprawling complex larger than the Pentagon, echoes with uncertainty as US tariffs on Indian diamonds double to 50%. This escalation threatens the US market, which absorbs nearly one-third of India’s $28.5 billion annual gem and jewelry exports.
Orders have evaporated, with fewer than 250 of 4,700 bourse offices buzzing—down from full capacity. Diamond packets once sold for 25,000 rupees ($285.84) now fetch just 18,000 rupees, prompting minimal inventory hoarding and deep discounts.
Peak pre-Christmas production has stalled, and India’s overall diamond exports hit a two-decade low amid weak Chinese demand. Exporters like Hitesh Patel of Dharmanandan Diamonds brace for revenue cuts, mulling shifts to Botswana.
Job losses loom large: 150,000 to 200,000 workers face layoffs without a US-India trade deal, with firms like Shailesh Mangukiya’s slashing staff by half to 125. Yet, silver linings emerge—India’s domestic market, now the world’s second-largest, overtakes China, compensating somewhat via robust local demand.
| Tariff Impact Metric | Key Data | Implication |
| US Market Share | ~33% of $28.5B exports | Potential $9B+ annual hit |
| Bourse Occupancy | <250/4,700 offices | Signals 95% underutilization, stalling relocations |
| Price Decline | 25,000 to 18,000 rupees/packet | 28% drop erodes margins for small units |
| Job Risk | 150,000-200,000 losses | Heightens social pressures in Surat’s artisan economy |
This disruption underscores supply chain vulnerabilities, pushing diversification to Asia, Europe, and the Middle East—though new buyers prove elusive as US clients pivot to Israel, Belgium, and Botswana.
In brief, 50% tariffs cast a shadow over 2025:
- Export Squeeze: One-third US reliance amplifies two-decade low trends.
- Operational Halt: Bourse quietude reflects buyer hesitation.
- Mitigation Efforts: Domestic growth offsets partial losses.
Geopolitical moves are forcing rapid adaptation in the diamond market.
How are these 2025 Trends Reshaping the Overall Diamond Market?
At our market research firm, we see these headlines converging on a resilient yet recalibrating diamond market. The LGD price crash—96% since 2018—and 90% discount to naturals bolster natural stones’ 20% annual Indian growth, projecting a $4 billion domestic surge by 2030. Yet, 50% US tariffs risk slashing $9 billion from India’s $28.5 billion exports, with 150,000-200,000 jobs at stake and bourse activity down 95%.
This duality accelerates segmentation—naturals for prestige, LGDs for volume. Tariffs hasten diversification, potentially growing non-US exports via traceability certifications. Overall, the market’s $100 billion+ polish value faces contraction short-term, but ethical sourcing and domestic pivots could yield rebound by 2027. Risks like job churn demand agile policies; opportunities lie in hybrid models blending natural authenticity with sustainable synthetics.
Next Steps: Actionable Takeaways for Diamond Market Stakeholders
Navigate 2025’s twists with these 4 strategies:
- Diversify Export Destinations: Target Asia and Europe to offset 33% US exposure, aiming for 15% revenue shift via trade pacts.
- Emphasize Natural Premiums: Leverage 90% LGD discounts with marketing on authenticity, targeting 10-15% bridal sales growth.
- Build Inventory Buffers: Stockpile at 28% price dips for post-tariff rebounds, mitigating 20-25% revenue risks.
- Invest in Workforce Upskilling: Train 150,000+ at-risk artisans in digital polishing tech to cut churn by 20%.
About the Author
Prakhyat Chowdhury is a dedicated SEO Executive and Content Writer with strong expertise in digital marketing and organic growth strategy. With a keen understanding of search algorithms, keyword research, and on-page optimization, he focuses on creating high-impact content that strengthens online visibility and drives measurable engagement. Prakhyat combines analytical thinking with creative execution, ensuring every piece of content aligns with user intent and business objectives. Outside of his professional pursuits, he enjoys exploring new technologies, following market trends, and engaging in activities that fuel continuous learning and creativity. The author can be reached out at [email protected].
